Week ending 25th April 2025.

As you can see from the accompanying table, global markets staged an encouraging rebound this week, with renewed investor optimism helping to drive gains after U.S. stocks wobbled on Monday. Signs of easing trade tensions provided a key source of support.

U.S. equities climbed as President Trump softened his stance on China trade policy, helping to stabilise markets after recent volatility. Investor sentiment was further lifted when he backed away from threats to dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. A three-day relief rally followed, driven by hopes that tariff tensions may be easing and could lead to more constructive negotiations. While some market turbulence is likely to persist, there’s a growing belief that tariffs may have peaked and will be substantially lower than previously proposed.

Optimism for trade progress grew further amid reports that China is considering suspending certain retaliatory tariffs and that U.S.-Japan trade talks are advancing positively. Speculation emerged that Beijing may lift its 125% tariffs on select U.S. goods, fuelling hopes of a potential breakthrough in U.S.-China relations. While some businesses confirmed that China had exempted specific U.S. imports from these steep tariffs on Friday, Chinese officials quickly dismissed President Trump’s claim that formal negotiations were already in progress.

Policymakers in Beijing also signalled a proactive stance to safeguard growth. On Friday, the Politburo—the ruling Communist Party’s top executive body—announced plans to “fully prepare” emergency measures in response to external shocks. According to state media reports, Beijing is setting up new monetary tools and policy financing instruments aimed at boosting technology, consumption, and trade.

In the UK, the FTSE 100 extended its winning streak, marking its longest run of consecutive gains in eight years. Momentum was supported by an unexpected 0.4% rise in British retail sales in March, rounding off the sector’s strongest quarterly performance since 2021. However, consumer confidence data painted a more cautious picture for April. GfK’s Consumer Confidence Barometer showed a four-point decline to -23, reflecting growing household concerns over rising living costs and escalating global trade tensions.

Elsewhere, while Ukrainian and European officials pushed back against certain U.S. proposals aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine, diplomatic engagement remains active, suggesting a continued commitment to finding a negotiated path forward.

Corporate earnings also provided a lift to sentiment. Some better-than-expected results helped distract investors from tariff concerns. According to data from FactSet, 73% of companies that had reported first-quarter results through Friday morning had beaten consensus earnings expectations.

Looking ahead, Wall Street faces a busy week with hundreds of companies set to announce results, including four members of the “Magnificent Seven”: Apple, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Amazon. In addition, key economic releases are scheduled, including Chinese PMI data, preliminary first-quarter GDP figures for the Eurozone and US. As well as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE price index.

Kate Mimnagh, Portfolio Economist

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